Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population ( β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3–148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1–36.6) globally over the study period. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality-driven by conflicts categorised as wars. We identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We included 193 countries between 19 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups. Armed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure.
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